I’m a Senior Policy Fellow and Co-Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS) at LSE. I’m also a Fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory, where I lead the research programme on Inference from Models.
I’m interested in statistics, uncertainty, climate change, and the appropriate use of mathematical modelling to support real-world decisions, as well as all aspects of the transition to genuinely sustainable ways of living and working.
My research interests focus on realistic evaluation of (climate and other) information for decision-making, communication of the inherent uncertainty, and improving robustness and usability of information that is relevant for decisions in mitigation, adaptation, insurance and business. At present I am working on a NERC-funded collaboration with the Start Network, improving their use of forecast information for anticipatory humanitarian action before a crisis hits. I have previously worked with the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change, providing robust climate science information for their Global Calculator project, which has inspired further research questions and knowledge exchange efforts. I also acted as Knowledge Integrator for the AVOID 2 programme, directly funded by DECC, DEFRA and NERC.
I am interested in personal as well as organisational decision-making, and the motivations and factors that influence individuals to take action to reduce their own carbon footprint. I am reducing my own ecological footprint to a “One Planet” level and do not fly to conferences, instead exploring other ways to contribute to those out of physical reach.